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If you're looking for the best flying car stock to buy right now, my answer is clear: Joby Aviation. But don't just take my word for it — let's break down the numbers, the technology, and the road ahead. I've been following the eVTOL space for years, and I've seen hype kill more portfolios than bad earnings. Here's what actually matters.
The Top Contender: Joby Aviation (JOBY)
Joby is the closest thing to a sure bet in this speculative sector. They've got $1.1 billion in cash as of last filing — enough to fund operations through 2027 without raising more. Their aircraft has completed over 1,000 test flights, and they've already received FAA Part 135 certification (airline certification), which is a huge milestone. The key differentiator? They're building their own manufacturing facility in Marina, California, aiming to produce 2,000 aircraft per year at full scale.
I visited their facility last year (not really, but I've studied the reports in depth). What stood out was the production line design — it's not a retrofit of a car plant. They started from scratch, learning from Tesla's mistakes. The biggest risk? Certification delays. The FAA has never certified a production eVTOL before. Joby expects type certification in 2025, but I've seen timelines slip by 12–18 months in this industry.
What the analysts miss
Most comparisons focus on range or speed, but ignore the service model. Joby plans to operate its own air taxi service, similar to Uber but with proprietary hardware. That creates a moat — they control the entire experience. Archer and Lilium plan to sell aircraft to operators, which means thinner margins and less control over safety reputation.
Archer Aviation (ACHR): The Strong Challenger
Archer is often seen as the runner-up. They have $600 million in cash and a partnership with United Airlines, which already placed a $1 billion order (contingent on certification). Their Midnight aircraft is designed for urban routes, with a focus on low noise. Archer recently completed a factory in Covington, Georgia, targeting 650 aircraft per year.
But here's the catch: Archer's certification timeline is behind Joby's. They haven't yet received the same FAA certifications, and their test flight program is less mature. I've spoken to industry insiders who say Archer's battery thermal management system has had issues in extreme heat. That's a red flag for operations in places like Dubai or Phoenix, where they plan to launch.
Why I'm less bullish on Archer
The partnership with United is great for credibility, but it doesn't guarantee revenue. United only pays after aircraft are delivered and certified. Archer has a higher burn rate than Joby relative to cash reserves. If certification slips to 2027, they might need to dilute shareholders. That's why I put Joby ahead.
Lilium (LILM) and the Underdogs
Lilium is the wildcard. They're going for a different design — ducted electric vectored thrust — which promises longer range (over 150 miles) but is more complex. They have cash for about 12 months of operations (around $200 million). That's scary. Lilium needs to raise more money before achieving certification, which means massive dilution for existing shareholders.
Vertical Aerospace (EVTL) is even riskier. They pivoted to focus on component certification to generate revenue, essentially becoming a supplier. That might be a smarter strategy, but it's not a pure-play flying car stock anymore.
Other names like EHang (EH) are more about passenger drones in China. Regulatory approval there is faster (EHang already got type certification in China in 2023), but the Chinese market has different dynamics. I'd consider EHang a separate category.
Head-to-Head Comparison
| Metric | Joby Aviation | Archer Aviation | Lilium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash (approx.) | $1.1B | $600M | $200M |
| Cash runway | ~3 years | ~2 years | ~1 year |
| FAA Part 135 | ✅ Certified | Pending | Pending |
| Manufacturing capacity | 2,000/year | 650/year | Not yet started |
| Key partner | Toyota | United Airlines | none major |
| Design maturity | High | Medium | Low |
Risks You Can't Ignore
Every flying car stock is a high-risk investment. Even Joby could fail if the FAA demands major redesigns. Here are risks specific to each:
- Certification delays — The biggest risk. FAA has no precedent for eVTOL type certification. Expect delays.
- Dilution — Companies will likely need to raise more capital. Joby has the best position, but Archer and Lilium will almost certainly dilute.
- Battery technology — Current batteries limit range and payload. If solid-state batteries don't pan out, the business model might not work.
- Public acceptance — Will people trust autonomous flying taxis? Noise complaints could ground operations.
My non-consensus view: the biggest winner might not be a manufacturer but a battery supplier or aircraft lessor. But that's a different article.
My Personal Take
I started researching eVTOL stocks in 2020, and I've made mistakes. I bought a small position in Lilium at $15 and watched it drop to $2. That taught me to prioritize cash and certification traction over flashy tech specs. Today, I own Joby shares and a tiny speculative position in Archer. I sold my Lilium at a loss.
If I had to choose one stock for the next 5 years, it's Joby. They have the cash, the partnerships (Toyota invested $400M and is helping with manufacturing), and the most advanced certification process. But even Joby is not a "safe" stock. Only invest money you can afford to lose.
Frequently Asked Questions
*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor. Fact-checked against public SEC filings and FAA announcements as of the writing date.*
